Every root cause investigation is an argument: someone claims that if a particular thing had been different, the failure would not have happened. A working guide to making that claim survive contact with evidence — the three rungs of causal reasoning, the classical and causal-inference toolboxes, where correlation betrays you, and the four levels of physics-grounded root causing.
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The guide lives at its own URL in the warm-paper layout, with interactive figures you can push on.
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